You are Here > Home > My Retirement > How ‘bad timing’ affects retirees’ income

How ‘bad timing’ affects retirees’ income

Dec 15, 2021

Retirees need to work with their financial advisers to carefully determine the structure, size, and affordability of their future pension withdrawals, particularly in a volatile market environment, says Jean-Pierre Matthews, product head at Matrix Fund Managers.

How ‘bad-timing’ affects retirees’ incomeWhen we reach retirement age, we expect our hard-earned savings to provide us and our beneficiaries with income for another 30 years or more. Since we are no longer accumulating capital, we have a finite amount of retirement funds from which to draw a pension over the years to come.

There are a number of options available when planning a pension, ranging from guaranteed income annuities, life annuities, or living annuities.

Investment-linked living annuities (ILLAs) offer retirees the flexibility of managing their own investments and levels of income withdrawals within wide parameters.

It is important that retirees work with their financial planners to carefully determine the structure, size, and affordability of their future pension withdrawals.

Many assumptions are made during this planning process, including estimates of future investment returns and inflation. During this process it is also important that retirees are made aware of the dangers of sequence risk (or sequence-of-return risk) and how short-term market volatility may permanently impact the level of their future income.

The impact of ‘bad timing’

We know that the market has its ups and downs. When we are young and in the early stages of our saving careers, we are net investors. Market volatility can mean buying assets at lower prices whenever the market takes a dip, so early-stage savers can afford a long-term view to help accumulate retirement savings.

However, things change as we approach or enter retirement and become net sellers of assets.

During a market downturn, many retirees with investment-linked annuities (such as ILLAs) may need to sell some of their investments at lower-than-expected prices to maintain a desired level of income.

Selling more assets than expected leaves one with less capital to fund future income. Even if markets rebound, you may still experience a lasting negative impact on the ability to maintain your planned levels of income.

Sequence risk is thus of concern for income-reliant investors, whereby pension withdrawals during a bear market are more costly than in a bull market –  especially during early retirement.

To mitigate sequence risk, investment-linked annuitants and their advisers focus on more conservative investment strategies that aim to provide some level of capital preservation while still providing inflation-beating returns over the shorter to medium term.

A different post-Covid world

Amid the unprecedented economic contraction due to Covid-19, central banks are encouraging growth by keeping monetary policy rates and funding costs low. However, one consequence is that in SA, our investment environment has undergone a paradigm shift, with successive interest-rate cuts raising unseen risks for investors.

For many years prior to the Covid crisis, South African savers were spoilt with high real policy rates. The South Africa Reserve Bank typically pegged the repo rate at expected inflation plus 2 or 3 percentage points, which offered a comfortable real return for negligible risk.

You were able to buy lower-risk money market instruments yielding 7% to 8%, while inflation was tracking around 4.5% to 5.0%. It was therefore possible to earn CPI+3% returns with low risk, and when you add some credit or duration risk, many income funds were yielding real returns in excess of CPI+4% during those years.

It is therefore no surprise that income funds became a core investment in most post-retirement portfolios.

But now, post Covid, things have changed dramatically.

Globally, central banks have maintained policy rates at very low levels to help boost global economic growth.

In South Africa, the current repo rate of 3.5% is more than a percentage point less than expected inflation of around 5%. We have moved to a zero (even negative) real policy rate environment and today most money market investments are yielding the same as or below expected inflation.

Gone are the low-risk CPI+3% days. The new reality – at least in the short to medium term – is that investors will be hard-pressed to earn more than 6.5% p.a. from income funds without attracting undue duration, credit, or liquidity risks.

What choices are available to investors?

When targeting relatively stable returns in excess of CPI+2%, investors and their advisers may consider adding some exposure to low- and medium-equity multi-asset funds to their portfolios.

Unit trusts in these categories typically limit equity exposure to 40% or 60% and aim to achieve a real return of 3-4% over the medium term.

These funds follow a diversified approach and invest into a range of asset classes that include money market, bonds, inflation-linked bonds, property, and equities in both local and global markets.

Some funds maintain a static (or strategic) asset allocation, while other funds have a more active approach to asset allocation.

Active asset allocation can reduce risk

Active asset allocation can be used as a risk-mitigating tool. At Matrix we adopt an active approach to our asset allocation. We formulate a twelve-month scenario view on what the performance of different asset classes may be and compare these possible return ranges to expected inflation.

We adapt our asset allocation to help provide our investors with the best possible chance of beating their inflation targets, while being cognizant of the downside risks that various asset classes hold.

Investors requiring short-term capital security may find high-quality income funds attractive, but for the reasons above, these funds are unlikely to produce the same inflation-beating returns as in the recent past.

Risk-averse investors with a three-year view may, in consultation with their financial adviser, consider multi-asset low- or medium-equity funds as a useful component of their overall investment strategy.

This post was based on a press release issued on behalf of Matrix Fund Managers.

0 Comments

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Maya Fisher-French author of Money Questions Answered

Previous Articles

What will the rand do in 2022?

Ryan Booysen, MD at DG Capital Forex, stares into his crystal ball to predict where the rand will go in 2022. The rand ended 2021 on the back foot, after the Omicron announcement and subsequent global kneejerk reaction of isolation and red-listing the country. And...

Reflecting on the year that was

Victoria Reuvers, Managing Director at Morningstar Investment Management South Africa, looks at how financial markets performed in 2021. As a runner, the change in seasons gives me time to reflect. Autumn is my favourite season, and always reminds me that change is...

Immediate access to retirement funds unlikely

Retirement reform paper calls for comment but no move on immediate access. Retirement fund members hoping to access their retirement funds for urgent financial relief will be disappointed by the retirement reform paper issued by National Treasury last month. In the...

Video: Plan for retirement

Retirement is something we can plan for ‒ and the better our planning, the more we get to enjoy our retirement years. In this video, I am joined by Guy Chennells, Head of Product at Discovery Employee Benefits, who will give us some tips around what you need to be...

Retirement diversification in action

Rocco Carr, Business Development Manager at Glacier by Sanlam, explains how we should be thinking about different layers when it comes to retirement diversification. What does diversification mean? The dictionary meaning of diversification comes down to the process of...

What happens to your GEPF pension after five years?

As a financial journalist I often come across misinformation spread by unscrupulous financial advisers when it comes to the Government Employees Pension Fund. Most of these untruths relate to members’ funds at retirement, as the financial advisers are hoping for the...

Video: Become a farmer without a farm

As a smart person once said, diversification is the only free lunch. And if the current coronavirus crisis has taught us anything, it is to make sure our investments are diversified. The idea behind diversification is that it spreads our risk. When it comes to...

Bitcoin: navigating tax and exchange control

Regulation of bitcoin and other crypto assets is inevitable, but it makes investing in this new asset class safer. A few years ago, I was sitting on a panel discussion when the topic of bitcoin was raised. The appeal of bitcoin for many people was that it was...

Beware bad advice at retirement

Many members of the GEPF are being given bad advice by financial advisers, who are telling them that they should resign from the GEPF before retirement. Members of the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) are being approached by financial advisers and being...

The top African tech unicorns worth watching

The experts at CMTrading take a look at some of the African tech unicorns that have reached the $1 billion mark, and what has made them worthy of the title. For those unfamiliar with online trading or venture capital terminology, the term “unicorn” is used to describe...

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This